[Craic] When does correlation mean causation - a possible topic for Saturday morning
Arthur Blomme
art at integralshift.ca
Thu Dec 8 13:00:05 PST 2022
Epoch Health
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health>
Hi all
I have stated before that one of the main reasons that I waffle when it
comes to asserting my belief in Climate change is that correlation does
not equal climate change. This article although it does not deal with
climate change does raise the scientific criteria necessary to prove
causation, the Bradford Hill Criteria. Reading this moved me a few
degree's closer to believing in climate change. I just wish that the
promoters of climate change doctrine would trust the public and address
these criterion.
Art
Epoch Health
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health>
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health>
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How Much Harm Is Too Much for a Vaccine? We Already Have the Criteria
PUBLIC HEALTH <https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/public-health>
Jennifer Margulis <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-jennifer-margulis>
Jennifer Margulis <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-jennifer-margulis>
Joe Wang <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-joe-wang>
Joe Wang <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-joe-wang>
Dec 2 2022
biggersmaller
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There is evidence that suggests thataluminum is a neurotoxin
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/expert-on-aluminum-toxicity-forced-out-of-university_4886099.html>.
There is evidence that shows thatglyphosate is a cause of infertility
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/are-we-weeding-out-our-future_4288618.html>.
Many vegans contend that aplant-based diet
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/edition/mind-body-weekly-41-3_4049195/4041063>is
positively associated withhealthy aging
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/getting-fit-as-we-get-older_4303270.html>.
There is a traditional Chinese belief that sweeping with a broom on New
Year’s brings bad luck.
But how do we know if these things are actually linked or if they are
just randomly associated?
How do public health officials, medical doctors, and the patients
themselves determine if there is a cause-and-effect relationship between
aluminum and brain decline or glyphosate and fertility challenges?
This isn’t just a philosophical debate. Figuring out the answers to
cause-and-effect questions has the potential to impact many of our
health andlifestyle choices
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/fixing-bad-habits_3944597.html>.
Correlation or Causation?
Sir Austin Bradford Hill was a medical statistician in Great Britain. In
1965, Bradford Hill established a set of nine “viewpoints
<https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1898525/>” to determine
when data demonstrated causation.
Hill’s work is still the foundation of showing cause and effect in
epidemiology, as well as of showing statistically valid causation across
the sciences.
You have heard the caution that “correlation is not causation.” This is
a phrase repeated many times over, especially by industry spokespeople
trying to defend the safety of pharmaceutical medication or other products.
The idea behind insisting that correlation does not equal causation is
that just because two things happen together, it doesn’t mean that one
caused the other.
A quick example: Let’s say a lot of people named Ashley drive Priuses.
That doesn’t mean that Prius drivers must be named Ashley or that people
named Ashley necessarily prefer Priuses. The observation can be true
without there being any real connection between the name Ashley and
Priuses beyond simple random chance.
However, when data shows a correlation of any kind (whether it besudden
deaths among healthy young people
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/people-dying-in-their-sleep-linked-to-vaccines-explains-dr-peter-mccullough-cardiologist_4806813.html>who
have recently hadCOVID-19
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/t-covid-19>vaccines or Prius drivers
named Ashley), Bradford Hill points to nine ways of proving causation.
The Bradford Hill Criteria
In 1965, long before cigarette manufacturers admitted there was any
connection, he applied his criteria to smoking and cancer.
While everyone now recognizes the connection, it’s important to remember
that smoking and lung cancer do not have a 1:1 correlation.
Many people, includingJennifer’s grandfather
<https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1994-11-05-9411050029-story.html>,
are able to smoke like chimneys all their lives without getting lung cancer.
However, the Bradford Hill criteria point to smoking as the cause of
lung and other cancers, including rare cancers that are found more
frequently in smokers.
His nine viewpoints, which are now usually called the Bradford Hill
criteria, are:
1. *Strength*: the more two things occur together, the more likely the
causality, even for rare events.
2. *Consistency*: studies find the same correlation in different places
and populations.
3. *Specificity*: a single cause produces a specific effect. (True of
diseases like tuberculosis, for example, which is caused by a
bacterium called “Mycobacterium tuberculosis”; not so simple for
cancer, which appears to have multiple causes.)
4. *Temporality*: the cause must come before (precede) the effect.
5. *Biological gradient*: more exposure leads to more frequent
consequences.
6. *Plausibility*: is there a plausible mechanism for how one thing
causes the other?
7. *Coherence*: is the same effect found in both epidemiological
studies of the population and in laboratory work?
8. *Experiment*: can the correlation observed in the population be
reproduced in a laboratory experiment?
9. *Analogy*: is this cause-effect relationship similar to others we
already understand?
Meeting Even One Criterion Enough to Show Causation*
*
According to Bradford Hill, you do not need to satisfy all of these
criteria in order to show a clear cause-and-effect relationship between
two things.
In fact, satisfying any/one/of the Bradford Hill criteria is enough to
suggest causation. But if several of the criteria are found, the
causation is more likely. Many well-understood causes do not meet all of
Bradford Hill’s criteria. The only one you must have in order to prove
causality is temporality. In other words, the cause must come before the
effect.
If any pharmaceutical product—including aprescription
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/was-ivermectin-unfairly-torpedoed-as-treatment-for-covid-19_4394927.html>orover-the-counter
medication
<https://jennifermargulis.substack.com/p/tylenol-the-pain-reliever-class-action>or
avaccination
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/covid-19-vaccines-didnt-work-so-cdc-changed-the-definition-of-vaccines_4701875.html>—meets
even just two of the criteria, caution would suggest that the
possibility of causation be vigorously investigated.
Myocarditis in Young Men Post-COVID-19 Injection
Cases of myocarditis
<https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346>in young men
who had received mRNA COVID-19 vaccines made British health officials
concerned that therisk of myocarditis
<https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-myocarditis-and-pericarditis-information-for-healthcare-professionals/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-myocarditis-and-pericarditis-following-covid-19-vaccination>may
be as great or greater to young men than the risks of COVID-19 itself.
Because of a risk-benefit analysis that showed that cases are higher in
men who get the Pfizer vaccine, the NHS now recommends young men get the
Moderna injection.
When Florida public health officials did anextensive review
<https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221007-guidance-mrna-covid19-vaccines-analysis.pdf>of
the existing data, they came to a very different conclusion. Florida’s
Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, now recommends that adult men under
40 do not get vaccinated against COVID-19.
In astatement released on October 7, 2022
<https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDOH/bulletins/3312697>,
Joseph Ladapo explained:
“This analysis found that there is an 84 percent increase in the
relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18 to 39 years
old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. With a high level of
global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely
outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among
men in this age group. Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these
increased risks.
“As such, the State Surgeon General recommends against males aged 18 to
39 from receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Those with preexisting cardiac
conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular
caution when making this decision.”
How does looking at the data lead to rescinding the recommendation that
males ages 18 to 39 get vaccinated? The data showed the Bradford Hall
criteria of*strength*—there is an increased incidence of myocarditis in
more vaccinated populations;*consistency*—incidents of myocarditis
post-vaccinationhave been found worldwide
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/covid-vaccine-injuries-quietly-being-compensated-around-the-world-are-you-eligible_4632576.html>;*temporality*—young
men (andmany other people
<https://openvaers.com/covid-data/myo-pericarditis>) are developing
myocarditis following the COVID-19 vaccines; and
perhaps*specificity*—until the roll-out of the vaccination program,
myocarditis in young men was extremely rare. Research is now being done
to look at plausible biological mechanisms to explain why the mRNA
vaccines are causing heart inflammation.
In April 2021, the CDCtemporarily paused
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html>the
use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. They did this after several women
developed thrombosis and thrombocytopenia within two weeks of being
vaccinated.
Since this specific condition was virtually unheard of before the
vaccines, six cases in women between the ages of 18 and 48 were enough
to get the attention of the public health authorities. Several Bradford
Hill criteria were fulfilled, including temporality and strength. The
CDC recommends using other vaccines against COVID-19. As they explain on
their website:
“There is a potential cause-and-effect relationship between J&J/Janssen
COVID-19 vaccine and a rare and serious adverse event. It is blood clots
with low platelets (thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, or TTS
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html#TTS>).
TTS occurs at a rate of about 4 cases per million Janssen’s Johnson and
Johnson doses and has resulted in deaths. Because of this risk,
vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines other than J&J/Janssen vaccine is
preferred.”
A Pharmaceutical Expert Weighs In
A former pharmaceutical executive, Sasha Latypova, spent her career
founding several companies focusing on clinical trial reviews.
In a recentinterview
<https://www.ukcolumn.org/video/toxic-by-design-big-pharma-experts-speak-out>,Latypova
pointed to data that shows that using the Bradford Hill criteria, it is
clear that theharms of the COVID-19 injections
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/unethical-and-up-to-98-times-worse-than-the-disease-top-scientists-publish-paradigm-shifting-study-about-covid-19-vaccines_4723122.html>outweigh
the benefits.
Among other things, Latypova pointed to aPfizer-funded rodent study
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0890623821000800?via%3Dihub>that
showed that pregnant rats had poor health outcomes. Pfizer dismissed the
findings of skeletal abnormalities, feeding disturbances, and pregnancy
loss in the vaccinated rodents as “incidental.”
But Latypova also mentioned that we know that there have been
significantly moremiscarriages
<https://openvaers.com/covid-data/reproductive-health>and stillbirths in
countries where large numbers of women have been vaccinated. In these
countries “the birth rates have declined in perfect correlation with the
vaccination rates,” she said. At the same time, we have not seen a
similar decline inpoorer countries
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-africa-advantage-real-reasons-underdeveloped-countries-unaffected-by-covid_4627935.html>where
pregnant women havenot been getting COVID-19 injections
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/new-study-unvaccinated-wrongly-maligned_4572171.html>.
In those countries, birth rates have risen.
“What else do you need as proof?” Latypova asked rhetorically. “All the
Bradford Hill criteria have all been met for all of this.”
There is a definite correlation between COVID-19 injections and adverse
events, including declining birth rates, stillbirths, and other poor
health outcomes. In most cases, if a drug is shown to cause harm by
meeting just two Bradford Hill criteria, it would no longer be
recommended. In this case, all nine Bradford Hill criteria are met. It’s
time for public health officials, along withmedical doctors
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/covid-vaccinations-for-children-is-criminal-must-stop_4529512.html>,
epidemiologists, and everyone else, toreappraise
<https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/scientists-doctors-parents-speak-out-about-harms-of-covid-19-vaccines_4802738.html>the
contention that these injections are safe.
/Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Epoch Health
welcomes professional discussion and friendly debate. To submit an
opinion piece, please follow these guidelines and submit throughour form
here <https://www.theepochtimes.com/submission-guidelines_4553495.html>./
Jennifer Margulis <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-jennifer-margulis>
Jennifer Margulis <https://www.theepochtimes.com/author-jennifer-margulis>
Jennifer Margulis, Ph.D., is an award-winning journalist and author of
“Your Baby, Your Way: Taking Charge of Your Pregnancy, Childbirth, and
Parenting Decisions for a Happier, Healthier Family.” A Fulbright
awardee and mother of four, she has worked on a child survival campaign
in West Africa, advocated for an end to child slavery in Pakistan on
prime-time TV in France, and taught post-colonial literature to
non-traditional students in inner-city Atlanta. Learn more about her
at_JenniferMargulis.net_ <http://jennifermargulis.net/>
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